Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.3%
Alverca
21.9%
Draw
70.8%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.42
Alverca
vs
1.81
Porto
Markets
BTTS29.6%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.566.0%
Over 2.538.7%
Over 3.518.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.7%
0-2
17.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-3
10.6%
1-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
0-4
4.8%
1-3
4.5%
1-0
3.9%
1-4
2.0%
2-1
1.7%
0-5
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).