Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.7%
Fiorentina
24.3%
Draw
51.0%
Napoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Fiorentina
vs
1.63
Napoli
Markets
BTTS52.0%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.2%
2-2
5.0%
0-3
4.9%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).