Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.2%
Luton
20.9%
Draw
57.9%
Bournemouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Luton
vs
2.44
Bournemouth
Markets
BTTS71.3%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.591.2%
Over 2.574.9%
Over 3.554.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.8%
1-1
8.2%
1-3
7.1%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
2-1
5.3%
2-3
5.2%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
4.4%
0-1
3.9%
2-4
3.2%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).