Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.1%
Nacional
21.6%
Draw
20.3%
Portimonense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Nacional
vs
0.99
Portimonense
Markets
BTTS52.5%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.2%
Over 2.554.1%
Over 3.531.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.3%
1-1
10.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-2
3.0%
4-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).