Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.2%
Brentford
28.1%
Draw
31.7%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Brentford
vs
1.33
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS59.2%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.554.4%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.7%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).