Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.5%
Birmingham
26.4%
Draw
17.1%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Birmingham
vs
0.79
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS45.2%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.570.9%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
11.8%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).