Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.5%
Real Madrid
17.8%
Draw
8.7%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Real Madrid
vs
0.61
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS40.6%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.552.8%
Over 3.530.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.6%
1-0
13.2%
3-0
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
5.8%
0-1
3.6%
4-1
3.5%
2-2
2.7%
5-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).