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23 Apr 2017

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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43.8%
Udinese
25.8%
Draw
30.4%
Cagliari

Expected Goals (xG)

1.43

Udinese

vs
1.15

Cagliari

Markets

BTTS51.7%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.526.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.9%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).