Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.8%
Cartagena
29.4%
Draw
24.8%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Cartagena
vs
0.81
Lugo
Markets
BTTS39.2%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.560.2%
Over 2.533.3%
Over 3.514.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.1%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).