Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.6%
Burnley
26.0%
Draw
51.3%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Burnley
vs
1.81
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS58.7%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
0-3
5.1%
1-0
4.5%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).