Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.7%
Santa Clara
32.4%
Draw
19.8%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Santa Clara
vs
0.56
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS27.5%
Over 0.580.7%
Over 1.547.5%
Over 2.522.1%
Over 3.58.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
21.5%
0-0
19.3%
0-1
11.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
6.2%
3-0
3.9%
1-2
3.3%
0-2
3.1%
3-1
2.2%
2-2
1.7%
4-0
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).