Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Port Vale
28.8%
Draw
30.9%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Port Vale
vs
0.96
Exeter
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.561.4%
Over 2.534.9%
Over 3.516.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.3%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).