Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.7%
Watford
29.0%
Draw
23.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Watford
vs
0.92
Luton
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).