Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.9%
Watford
23.3%
Draw
62.7%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Watford
vs
2.01
Leeds
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
11.4%
1-1
11.2%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
1-3
6.6%
2-2
4.3%
2-1
4.2%
0-4
3.8%
1-0
3.5%
1-4
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).