Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.9%
Stevenage
24.7%
Draw
18.4%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Stevenage
vs
0.74
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.3%
2-0
12.1%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).