Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.0%
Spal
30.0%
Draw
44.0%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
0.98
Spal
vs
1.35
Lecce
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.7%
2-2
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).