Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Notts County
26.8%
Draw
32.5%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Notts County
vs
1.08
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS46.7%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.2%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).