Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.4%
Estrela
22.6%
Draw
34.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Estrela
vs
1.46
Arouca
Markets
BTTS62.0%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.560.8%
Over 3.538.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.6%
0-0
3.9%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).