Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Fiorentina
22.9%
Draw
17.9%
Spezia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Fiorentina
vs
0.84
Spezia
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
2-0
11.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
4.6%
2-2
4.1%
4-0
2.9%
0-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).