Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.8%
Aston Villa
28.0%
Draw
29.3%
Bournemouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Aston Villa
vs
1.27
Bournemouth
Markets
BTTS58.7%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.554.1%
Over 3.531.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).