Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.1%
Derby
23.7%
Draw
14.2%
Barnsley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Derby
vs
0.78
Barnsley
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.5%
2-0
12.4%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).