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AHT: 10CSV

16 Jan 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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16.2%
Estoril
17.3%
Draw
66.5%
Benfica

Expected Goals (xG)

1.11

Estoril

vs
2.41

Benfica

Markets

BTTS60.6%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.586.3%
Over 2.568.3%
Over 3.546.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
7.7%
1-1
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
0-3
6.9%
2-2
5.3%
1-4
4.6%
2-1
4.4%
2-3
4.2%
0-4
4.2%
1-0
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).