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20 Apr 2024 · 15:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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41.9%
Santander
23.5%
Draw
34.6%
Levante

Expected Goals (xG)

1.64

Santander

vs
1.47

Levante

Markets

BTTS61.9%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.560.0%
Over 3.537.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-0
4.4%
1-3
3.9%
3-2
3.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).