Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.4%
Estrela
32.3%
Draw
30.4%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Estrela
vs
0.94
Farense
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.560.7%
Over 2.532.8%
Over 3.514.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
14.1%
1-0
13.5%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
3.4%
3-0
2.8%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).