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AHT: 02CSV

31 Aug 2025 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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8.6%
Alverca
15.8%
Draw
75.6%
Benfica

Expected Goals (xG)

0.60

Alverca

vs
2.26

Benfica

Markets

BTTS40.0%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.6%
Over 2.554.5%
Over 3.532.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-2
14.6%
0-1
13.3%
0-3
11.0%
1-2
8.8%
1-1
7.4%
1-3
6.6%
0-4
6.2%
0-0
5.4%
1-0
3.8%
1-4
3.7%
0-5
2.8%
2-2
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).