Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.2%
Napoli
22.1%
Draw
18.7%
Fiorentina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Napoli
vs
0.93
Fiorentina
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.576.2%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.7%
2-0
10.7%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
4-0
3.0%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).