Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.9%
Vallecano
24.5%
Draw
21.6%
Fuenlabrada
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Vallecano
vs
0.93
Fuenlabrada
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.525.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.4%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).