Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.9%
Ponferradina
22.8%
Draw
50.3%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Ponferradina
vs
1.82
Santander
Markets
BTTS60.1%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.559.6%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.8%
0-3
4.6%
0-0
4.5%
2-0
3.7%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).