Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.0%
Crawley Town
22.8%
Draw
59.2%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Crawley Town
vs
1.70
Notts County
Markets
BTTS44.9%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.3%
0-2
11.8%
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
7.6%
1-0
7.0%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.4%
2-1
4.5%
2-2
3.8%
0-4
2.8%
2-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).