Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.6%
Famalicao
20.0%
Draw
17.4%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Famalicao
vs
0.95
Arouca
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.556.9%
Over 3.534.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
10.8%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.4%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.7%
0-1
5.3%
2-2
4.7%
0-0
4.7%
1-2
4.7%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).