Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.1%
Lincoln
16.6%
Draw
12.3%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.22
Lincoln
vs
0.77
Burton
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.557.6%
Over 3.535.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.3%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.2%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
4-0
5.1%
0-1
4.6%
0-0
4.3%
4-1
3.9%
2-2
3.7%
1-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).