Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.9%
Sutton
24.7%
Draw
52.4%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Sutton
vs
1.83
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS58.2%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.557.2%
Over 3.534.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
0-3
5.2%
1-0
4.9%
2-3
3.4%
2-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).