Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.7%
St Pauli
32.8%
Draw
42.5%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
0.79
St Pauli
vs
1.13
Mainz
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.558.1%
Over 2.530.2%
Over 3.512.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.6%
0-0
15.5%
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
5.2%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.5%
2-2
2.9%
1-3
2.8%
3-1
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).