Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.6%
Santa Clara
30.2%
Draw
25.3%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Santa Clara
vs
0.76
Alverca
Markets
BTTS35.3%
Over 0.585.3%
Over 1.555.5%
Over 2.529.1%
Over 3.512.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.7%
0-0
14.7%
1-1
12.4%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.9%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
3-1
2.7%
1-3
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).