Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.6%
Reading
27.2%
Draw
49.3%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.00
Reading
vs
1.56
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.9%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.547.2%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
4.9%
0-3
4.9%
2-2
4.7%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).