Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Wrexham
25.9%
Draw
29.6%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Wrexham
vs
1.32
Derby
Markets
BTTS60.2%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.557.1%
Over 3.534.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.9%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).