Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.9%
Perugia
28.4%
Draw
42.7%
Frosinone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Perugia
vs
1.46
Frosinone
Markets
BTTS53.9%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.5%
0-2
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
3.8%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).