Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.8%
Cheltenham
21.8%
Draw
53.4%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Cheltenham
vs
1.85
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS58.0%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.580.1%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.535.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
6.2%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
5.1%
0-0
4.4%
2-3
3.6%
2-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).