Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.4%
Tondela
26.7%
Draw
47.9%
Estoril
Expected Goals (xG)
1.08
Tondela
vs
1.57
Estoril
Markets
BTTS53.1%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.9%
0-3
4.6%
2-0
4.1%
2-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).