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25 Jan 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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38.2%
Milton Keynes Dons
29.2%
Draw
32.6%
AFC Wimbledon

Expected Goals (xG)

1.08

Milton Keynes Dons

vs
0.97

AFC Wimbledon

Markets

BTTS40.7%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.560.4%
Over 2.533.9%
Over 3.515.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.4%
0-1
13.0%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
3.6%
3-0
2.7%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).