Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.7%
Luton
26.4%
Draw
33.0%
Bolton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Luton
vs
1.05
Bolton
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.564.8%
Over 2.539.3%
Over 3.519.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.2%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).