Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.6%
Ath Madrid
27.4%
Draw
38.0%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Ath Madrid
vs
1.29
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS51.4%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.571.8%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.6%
3-1
3.2%
0-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).