Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.4%
Nacional
24.2%
Draw
39.3%
Estoril
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Nacional
vs
1.72
Estoril
Markets
BTTS67.2%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.565.5%
Over 3.543.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.9%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
5.1%
1-0
4.9%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
4.4%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
4.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).