Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.3%
Thun
23.6%
Draw
15.1%
Basel
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Thun
vs
0.98
Basel
Markets
BTTS56.5%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.582.9%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.536.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.2%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.0%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
1-2
4.7%
4-0
3.7%
4-1
3.6%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).