Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.5%
Toulouse
11.9%
Draw
4.5%
Ajaccio
Expected Goals (xG)
2.50
Toulouse
vs
0.40
Ajaccio
Markets
BTTS30.0%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.555.4%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.2%
3-0
14.3%
1-0
14.0%
4-0
8.9%
2-1
6.9%
3-1
5.7%
1-1
5.2%
0-0
5.2%
5-0
4.5%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
2.5%
5-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).