Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.3%
Crawley Town
26.4%
Draw
37.3%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Crawley Town
vs
1.22
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
11.3%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).