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05 Apr 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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18.6%
Cheltenham
20.2%
Draw
61.2%
Doncaster

Expected Goals (xG)

1.00

Cheltenham

vs
2.02

Doncaster

Markets

BTTS54.5%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.558.1%
Over 3.535.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
10.3%
1-2
10.0%
0-2
9.9%
1-1
9.4%
1-3
6.7%
0-3
6.7%
1-0
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
2-1
5.0%
0-0
4.4%
1-4
3.4%
2-3
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).