Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.5%
Exeter
25.7%
Draw
27.8%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Exeter
vs
1.03
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.8%
1-1
12.1%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.6%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).