Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Lille
24.6%
Draw
31.4%
Toulouse
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Lille
vs
1.18
Toulouse
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.527.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).