Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Estrela
24.3%
Draw
35.1%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Estrela
vs
1.33
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS55.6%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
0-0
5.7%
0-2
5.5%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).